The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has emerged as a major force behind the dramatic growth in Nigeria’s petroleum product exports, with the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) reporting a sevenfold increase in the country’s seaborne shipments since 2023.
According to the latest EIA report, Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product shipments averaged 561,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of 2026, compared with an annual average of just 79,000 bpd in 2023.
The agency attributed the remarkable growth largely to the commencement of operations at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in January 2024, noting that increased domestic refining has strengthened Nigeria’s position in the global petroleum products market.
Data from energy intelligence firm Vortexa, cited by the EIA, showed that Nigeria exported about 350,000 bpd out of the 561,000 bpd shipped during the second quarter of 2026. This represents a significant increase from the 46,000 bpd annual average recorded in 2023.
The EIA said the refinery’s rising output has transformed Nigeria’s petroleum products market by simultaneously reducing the country’s dependence on imports, increasing domestic availability and creating additional volumes for export.
“With increased supply of petroleum products from the country’s largest refinery, imports fell, exports increased, and Nigeria became more self-sufficient in refined petroleum products,” the agency stated.
Before the Dangote Refinery commenced operations, Nigeria’s state-owned refineries collectively accounted for less than 100,000 bpd in petroleum product shipments, both domestically and internationally.
However, shipments increased substantially following the start-up of the new refinery and received another boost after maintenance and expansion works were completed in February 2026.
The EIA noted that the refinery’s crude distillation capacity was increased from 650,000 bpd to 700,000 bpd, enabling higher production and greater availability of refined petroleum products.
Domestic Fuel Supply Also Surges
The refinery’s growing contribution to the domestic market was reflected in the sharp rise in intra-Nigerian petroleum product shipments.
According to the EIA, intra-Nigerian shipments averaged 211,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026, up from 81,000 bpd in 2025 and just 33,000 bpd in 2023.
The figures underline the refinery’s expanding role in supplying petroleum products to different parts of Nigeria while reducing the country’s dependence on imported fuel.
Nigeria imported nearly 400,000 bpd of petroleum products in 2023. By the second quarter of 2026, however, seaborne imports had fallen to less than 130,000 bpd, according to the EIA.
The agency also noted that supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz created additional demand for alternative sources of refined petroleum products, further supporting Nigeria’s export growth.
Nigeria Gains Ground in European Market
Nigeria’s growing importance as an international supplier was particularly evident in the European market.
Vortexa data cited by the EIA showed that Nigerian petroleum product exports to Europe averaged 130,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 40,000 bpd in 2025 and only 15,000 bpd in 2023.
The development signals a major shift in Nigeria’s petroleum industry, as the country moves from heavy dependence on imported refined products towards greater domestic production and participation in the international refined petroleum market.
The EIA’s assessment therefore highlights the increasing strategic importance of the Dangote Refinery in strengthening Nigeria’s energy security, supporting domestic fuel supply, reducing import dependence and positioning the country as a significant exporter of refined petroleum products.
Dangote Plans Further Expansion
Meanwhile, the Dangote Refinery has announced plans to add another 700,000 bpd of fully complex refining capacity by the end of 2028.
The additional capacity would be built on the refinery’s existing capacity of about 700,000 bpd, potentially taking its total refining capacity to approximately 1.4 million bpd.
The refinery’s Chief Executive Officer, David Bird, disclosed that long-lead equipment for the expansion has already been procured, while construction contracts are being awarded.
If completed as planned, the expansion could further increase Nigeria’s refining capacity, deepen domestic fuel supply and strengthen the country’s position as a major exporter of refined petroleum products.