Nigeria’s economic recovery has received a major boost as global ratings agency S&P Global Ratings upgraded the country’s sovereign credit rating, citing the growing impact of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals and key economic reforms introduced by the Federal Government.
In its latest assessment, S&P upgraded Nigeria’s long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings from “B-” to “B”, pointing to stronger economic growth, improved external balances, increased oil production, and expanding domestic refining capacity as major factors driving the country’s economic rebound.
The agency identified the operational ramp-up of the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Refinery as a critical contributor to Nigeria’s improving balance of payments position and overall economic resilience.
According to the report, the refinery’s near-full operations are helping Nigeria reduce dependence on imported petroleum products, strengthen its current account surplus, and improve foreign exchange liquidity.
“Significant refining capacity is now also online; Dangote Industries Ltd.’s large-scale refinery and petrochemical complex has ramped up to near its maximum capacity of 650,000 barrels per day,” S&P stated.
The ratings agency projected that Nigeria’s current account surplus would rise to 5.8 per cent of GDP in 2026 from 4.8 per cent in 2025, supported largely by increased domestic refining activities and hydrocarbon exports.
S&P further noted that the refinery is ensuring improved availability of refined fuel, gas, and fertiliser for local consumption while also shielding the country from global supply disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The report linked Nigeria’s improving external position to reduced fuel import dependence, fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate liberalisation, and higher crude oil production.
Foreign exchange reserves, according to S&P, have climbed from about $33 billion in 2023 to nearly $50 billion by early 2026, aided partly by lower import demand for refined petroleum products following the commencement of operations at the Dangote Refinery.
The agency also highlighted the refinery’s strategic role in Africa’s industrialisation drive, stating that Nigeria is gradually transitioning from a crude oil-exporting nation to an emerging exporter of refined petroleum products.
S&P disclosed that Dangote Industries has unveiled plans to conduct feasibility studies aimed at expanding refining capacity from the current 650,000 barrels per day to about 1.4 million barrels per day.
According to the report, the planned expansion, alongside the rehabilitation of other local refineries, could significantly strengthen Nigeria’s economy and improve the country’s balance of payments over the coming years.
While acknowledging the continued influence of global crude oil prices and market-driven pricing on domestic fuel costs, the agency maintained that increased local refining capacity offers Nigeria greater energy security and reduced exposure to external supply shocks.
S&P also attributed Nigeria’s improving macroeconomic outlook to reforms introduced since 2023, including exchange rate liberalisation, fiscal adjustments, improved petroleum revenue remittances, and enhanced security measures in the Niger Delta aimed at boosting oil production.
The agency projected that Nigeria’s economic growth would remain resilient despite inflationary pressures, with ongoing reforms expected to strengthen investor confidence and support expansion in the non-oil sector.
According to S&P, the country’s stable outlook reflects a balance between improving external fundamentals and persistent structural challenges such as high inflation, a narrow tax base, and low formal employment levels.