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By Sani Abdullahi
Nigeria’s democratic journey has long been shaped by the quality of its elections. While advances in electoral technology have improved aspects of the voting process, persistent questions around transparency, trust, and legitimacy continue to challenge the nation’s democratic institutions.
It is against this backdrop that the Athena Centre for Policy and Leadership has intensified its efforts to drive evidence-based electoral reforms aimed at strengthening public confidence in Nigeria’s democratic process.
Founded by former Minister of Aviation and former Corps Marshal of the Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC), Chief Osita Chidoka, the Athena Centre was established with a clear objective: promoting data-driven policymaking as the foundation for effective leadership, accountable governance, and sustainable national development.
The Centre advocates a departure from emotional and reactionary governance, encouraging policymakers to rely on rigorous research, verifiable evidence, and predictive insights when making decisions. This philosophy underpins its non-partisan commitment to addressing governance challenges, particularly within Nigeria’s electoral system.
A History of Electoral Controversies
Nigeria’s electoral challenges date back to the country’s early years of independence.
The controversial Western Region elections of 1965 triggered widespread violence, popularly remembered as “Operation Wetie,” marked by arson, political assassinations, and unrest across the Southwest. The ensuing breakdown of order contributed to the military coup of January 1966, which ended the First Republic and set the stage for years of political instability, including the Nigerian Civil War.
Similarly, the Second Republic collapsed after the disputed 1983 elections supervised by the Federal Electoral Commission (FEDECO). Allegations of large-scale manipulation in favour of the ruling National Party of Nigeria (NPN) sparked protests and violence, creating conditions that culminated in the military takeover led by Major General Muhammadu Buhari on December 31, 1983.
Although the return to civilian rule in 1999 rekindled democratic hopes, elections in 2003 and 2007 drew widespread criticism for irregularities ranging from ballot shortages to premature announcement of results. The flaws were so pronounced that President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua publicly acknowledged shortcomings in the process that brought him to office, paving the way for subsequent electoral reforms and the introduction of technology-driven voting systems.
Technology, Trust and the 2023 Elections
The introduction of innovations such as the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) raised expectations for more transparent elections.
However, the 2023 presidential election exposed significant weaknesses when technical and operational challenges reportedly hindered the real-time upload of polling-unit results. The resulting controversy intensified public skepticism and reignited concerns about the credibility of Nigeria’s electoral institutions.
The aftermath also highlighted another growing trend—the increasing judicialisation of electoral politics. Weak party structures, ambiguous regulations, and contested outcomes have led to a surge in post-election litigation, with courts increasingly becoming the final arbiters of electoral contests.
Compounding these issues is the persistent threat of electoral violence. Armed political thugs and militia groups continue to disrupt elections through voter intimidation, ballot-box snatching, and attacks on polling centres, making participation in the democratic process risky in many parts of the country.
Athena’s Reform Agenda
To address these recurring challenges, the Athena Centre has developed a comprehensive reform framework anchored on technology, transparency, and evidence-based policy interventions.
One of its flagship initiatives is the Athena Election Observatory (AEO), a permanent platform designed to monitor every stage of the electoral process—from candidate nomination and voting to result collation and post-election dispute resolution. Through data analysis and policy recommendations, the Observatory seeks to improve accountability and inform reforms ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The Centre has also undertaken independent post-election audits. During the 2024 Edo State governorship election, more than 100 staff members and volunteers were deployed to download, digitise, and verify polling-unit results from the IReV portal in real time. Similar reviews were conducted following the 2023 governorship elections in Bayelsa, Imo, and Kogi states.
In October 2025, Athena convened a national dialogue titled “Innovation in Electoral Technology 2015–2025: Gains, Gaps, and the Road Ahead.” The event unveiled a decade-long assessment of electoral technologies, including BVAS and IReV, providing one of the most extensive independent evaluations of Nigeria’s electoral technology ecosystem.
The ‘Legitimacy Paradox’
Perhaps Athena’s most significant contribution to electoral discourse is what it describes as the “Legitimacy Paradox.”
According to the Centre, while technologies such as BVAS have substantially improved voter accreditation and reduced election-day manipulation, public confidence in elections has not increased at the same pace.
The reason, Athena argues, is that electoral legitimacy is no longer determined solely at polling units. Instead, trust is increasingly shaped by what happens after voting—how results are collated, transmitted, communicated, and ultimately adjudicated.
This perspective shifts attention from traditional election-day concerns to the broader chain of result management and transparency, highlighting areas where reforms are urgently needed before the next general election.
Campaign Finance Transparency
The Centre is also advocating reforms in political financing through its proposed Campaign Integrity and Transparency Framework.
The proposal seeks mandatory disclosure of digital advertising data by political actors, enabling regulators to monitor campaign spending, identify covert funding channels, curb premature campaigning, and strengthen accountability within the electoral system.
Why Legitimacy Matters
For Athena, the core challenge facing Nigeria’s democracy is legitimacy.
Citizens are more likely to trust public institutions, comply with laws, and participate constructively in governance when they believe political authority emerges from a transparent and credible process.
Without electoral legitimacy, democratic governance remains fragile, investor confidence weakens, and political stability becomes increasingly difficult to sustain.
As preparations gradually begin for the 2027 general elections, the Athena Centre maintains that credible elections must remain at the centre of Nigeria’s democratic renewal. Through research, policy advocacy, institutional monitoring, and technology audits, the organisation says it is committed not only to identifying electoral challenges but also to advancing practical solutions capable of strengthening Nigeria’s democracy.
With the next electoral cycle approaching, the Centre argues that closing the gap between the democracy Nigerians aspire to and the one they have experienced remains one of the country’s most urgent national priorities.